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The Department of Defense relies on predictions about future threats and potential scenarios to forecast needs and select and acquire major weapons sytems. A future or futures are envisioned, requirements are deduced and acquisition and design decisions are made and justified accordingly. But an uncertain national security environment dictates the need for adaptability and flexibility when predictions are incorrect, and the U.S. military must better prepare for this predictive failure.

Driving in the Dark: Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security, a report authored by former Secretary of the Navy and Chairman of the CNAS Board of Directors Richard Danzig, examines the nature of prediction and the role it plays in the defense community. Danzig argues that while the Department of Defense relies heavily on prediction to make decisions, it should prepare to be unprepared.

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11.07.2013

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Book info

Title
ISBN
Author
PublisherCenter for a New American Security
Release date 02.10.2011
Pages count44
File size3.8 Mb
eBook formatKindle Edition, (torrent)En
Book rating0 (0 votes)
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